Here it is, the most important night of the movie going year is finally upon us. What I find so interesting is how different this year is compared to years past. Usually, there’s a clear front runner, and there are a few categories to have one. But honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised by about 5 different movies taking the top prize. Full disclosure, I’ve not seen everything on this list. So this will be a combination of my personal thoughts, research I’ve done, and hopefully some good old fashioned luck. Alright, enough with the foreplay. Here are my official picks for this weekend’s Oscar ceremony.
*prays quietly* please let this be Deakins’ year, please oh please let it be his year. *amen*
BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Granddaddy of them all. This is the most mixed of any awards race I can remember in recent history. It’s so strange and refreshing that the safe bet is a monster/romance movie. I think the main contenders are The Shape of Water, Get Out, and Three Billboards. Get Out is my favorite of the bunch, but it might be a little to mainline horror for the academy. And while Three Billboards has a lot of buzz, most of that is around it’s cast and (for some reason) it’s godawful script. The Shape of Water, however, is a beautiful film that features oddball characters and a scene where a fish monster sits in an old movie theater appreciating the beauty of cinema. Yeah, that’ll take the cake Also, Where the hell is The Big Sick? You have ten slots, just give it to the actual best movie of the year.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Dark Horse: Get Out
Should Have Been Nominated: The Big Sick
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
This is the closest thing 2017 has to a cut a slam dunk pick. Timothée Chalamet was exceptional, Daniel Kalyuuya gave the breakout performance of the year, Denzel was solid as always, and Daniel Day-Lewis was… well he did what Daniel Day-Lewis does. But Gary Oldman has never won an oscar, and Darkest Hour checks too many boxes not to take it home. Period Piece? Check. Body Altering prosthetics and makeup? Check. A flashy, politically charged performance? Check. Oldman takes it, and good. Get that man the statue he deserves.
Will Win: Gary Oldman
Dark Horse: Timothée Chalamet
Should Have Been Nominated: Robert Pattinson, Good Time
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The actual best performance of the year, Armie Hammer in Call Me By Your Name, wasn’t nominated. With that in mind, this is the closest call for me. I keep going back and forth between Dafoe and Rockwell. Everyone else is great, but those two are the stand out. I saw The Florida Project last week, and I’m still crying. Dafoe is great in it, and if it were any other year he would be a lock. But Sam Rockwell is one of the best (see: only good) things about Three Billboards, and the buzz is all around him. I’m giving the edge to Rockwell, even though I want there to be a La La Land like mix up and they both get the honors.
Will Win: Sam Rockwell
Dark Horse: Willem Dafoe
Should Have Been Nominated: Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Let’s get the obligatory out of the way. There isn’t a bad performance in the bunch. But you’re kidding yourself if you think it’ll be anyone other than Frances McDormand. There’s the chance, ever so slight, that they give it to Margot Robbie. But I think she’s got too long a career in front of her compared to McDormand. Plus, Her performance is the best thing in Three Billboards and she’s won every possible award already this season. McDormand takes the gold, thanks for playing everyone else. Also, they may as well just expand the nomination slots to six so Meryl can have he standard spot. Then five actually deserving actress’s can get the honors.
Will Win: Frances McDormand
Dark Horse: Margot Robbie
Should Have Been Nominated: Brooklyn Princee, The Florida Project
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
This race is also a dead heat between two. And if the universe won’t be kind and give Holly Hunter the nomination she deserves, then this is a fine group of actresses to be left with. I go back and forth between Janey and Metcalf pretty frequently, but Laurie Metcalf has been overlooked by the awards in the past, an I don’t think her role in Lady Bird was flashy enough to change that trend. Janey, on the other hand, was a stone cold bitch in I, Tonya, and her’s was the performance I remembered most from that film. Plus, the career argument is sure to give her a boost this year as well.
Will Win: Allison Janey
Dark Horse: Laurie Metcalf
Should Have Been Nominated: Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
BEST DIRECTOR
Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro
It’ll probably go to del Toro. They won’t give it to a first time director, so Peele and Gerwig are out. PTA did a fine job with Phantom Thread, as did Nolan with Dunkirk, but neither of those films are quite flashy enough for the best director stature. The Shape of Water is so intensely a GDT film. Every frame of that movie is born directly from it’s director. I wouldn’t be surprised if it went to Peele, but I think this will be a lifetime achievement award for GDT.
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro
Dark Horse: Jordan Peele
Should Have Been Nominated: Sean Baker, The Florida Project
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Boss Baby
Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Guys, I mean.. It’s Coco. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it. Go ahead and put Ferdinand if you want to give yourself a handicap, but it’s Coco.
Will Win: Coco
Dark Horse: Lol, It’s Coco
Should Have won in 2016: Kubo and the Two Strings
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Please, please, please oh dear god please. Let this finally be Roger Deakins’ year. The man is the greatest cinematographer ever. Bar none. Yet he’s still gone home empty handed each year he’s been nominated. I’m hoping it’s the year, and I’m fine betting on him and getting it wrong.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Dark Horse: The Shape of Water
Should Have Been Nominated: The Florida Project
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
For this category, that Logan even got nominated is the award. Other than that, nothing is quite high profile enough to secure the win. So as a general rule of thumb, pick the one that’s also nominated for best picture.
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Dark Horse: Mudbound
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Look, Three Billboards is probably going to win, but I think Get Out will leave with at least one statue, and this is it’s best bet. I’m going on a limb and saying it’ll be Get Out, but it’s a dead heat in my mind.
Will Win: Get Out
Dark Horse: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (God I hope not)
Should Have Been Nominated: Wind River
FILM EDITING
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Baby Driver is the best edited movie of the year. I hope beyond hope that this will win. But it won’t. Why would it. It’ll go to Dunkirk because Nolan loves messing around with time. And that’s fine. I guess.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Dark Horse: The Shape of Water (Ugh…)
Please oh please let it be: Baby Driver
VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
War for the Planet of the Apes
I want it to be Serkis’ year, but I think Blade Runner 2049 will be like Mad Max Fury Road. It’ll sweet the technical categories without taking anything too high profile.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Dark Horse: War For Planet of the Apes
Should have Been Nominated: Andy Serkis for Best Actor
SOUND EDITING & SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Now for the annual explanation of the difference between sound editing and sound mixing. Sound editing is the creation an capture of individual sound effects. Sound Mixing is the way all the sound of the movie plays together. This award should be going to Baby Driver, but It’ll probably go to Dunkirk in both fields.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Dark Horse: The Shape Of Water
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Dark Horse: Dunkirk
Should Have Been Nominated: Thor Fuckin’ Ragnarok
ORIGINAL SONG
“Mighty River,” Mudbound
“Mystery of Love,” Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me,” Coco
“Stand Up for Something,” Marshall
“This is Me,” The Greatest Showman
Will Win: “Remember Me”
Dark Horse: “This is Me”
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Dark Horse: Victoria & Abdul
COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul
The movie about the dress maker will take home the costume design award. It’s that simple. Half of Phantom Thread‘s runtime is just glamour shots of luxurious dresses.
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Dark Horse: The Shape of Water
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
The Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Dark Horse: Blade Runner 2049
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Negative Space
Lou
Revolting Rhymes
Will Win: Dear Basketball
Dark Horse: Lou
Thank God It’s Not Nominated: The Garbage in front of Coco so bad Disney pulled it.
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O’Clock
The Silent Child
All of Us
My Nephew Emmett
Will Win: DeKalb Elementary
Dark Horse: The Eleven O’Clock
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men In Aleppo
Strong Island
Will Win: Icarus
Dark Horse: Faces Places
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Edith+Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
Will Win: Heroin(e)
Dark Horse: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman, Chile
The Insult, Lebanon
Loveless, Russia
On Body and Soul, Hungary
The Square, Sweden
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Dark Horse: The Insult
The Not-So-Buff Movie Buff 
Brooklynn Prince should have been nominated? That’s cute, but very unrealistic. I still do not understand how The Florida Project did not make the final Best Picture nominees cut. There are 10 slots available, and 9 were taken.
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Take out Meryl Streep and add Prince. I’m not kidding, I think hers was one of the 5 best leading performances of the year from any actress.
And there’s a whole mathematical way it breaks down, so there won’t be ten slots every time. But Big Sick should have gotten that nomination. It was criminally underrepresented.
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Yeah, Quvenzhané Wallis was 6 when she filmed her movie and got nominated when she was 9. Still, seeing that the Florida Project was so sidelined this year, there was little chance for Prince to have her nomination even discounting her age. Her acting feels so natural though in the film, many would even regard it as some effortless childish showing off in front of the camera rather than “acting”.
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She’s one of the only kids in a movie I’ve seen that actually felt like a kid.
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